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This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613678

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Strategies to develop effective, innovative and practical approaches to protect major european fruit crops from pests and pathogens

Managing pathways of pest and disease introduction



John Mumford

A pathway is defined as any means that allows the entry or spread of a pest (FAO, 1990). Trade in food commodities is an important means by which pests and diseases are introduced to new regions and countries. Analysis of genetic markers in the Spotted winged drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) show that it was introduced by trade into Europe on at least two separate occasions. On the first occasion it was imported directly from its home range in northern China into southern Europe and on the second it was brought into northern Europe from mainland USA after its initial introduction into Hawaii from Japan in the early 1980s (Fraimout et al., 2017).

The DROPSA project has extended a Quantitative Pathway Analysis (QPA) model (Holt et al., 2016) that includes historical trade data to simulate how infested food commodities are imported into the EU and transhipped between Member States (MS). Intra-state movement is simulated through knowledge of retail and processing distribution by NUTS2 region by month. The opportunity for pest or pathogen transfer to a susceptible host in each NUTS2 is calculated monthly using the quantity of infested material released into that environment, the pest viability in fruit and waste, pest mobility, host distribution and host phenology. The tool provides tabular and graphical outputs to allow scientists and policy makers to identify areas of high risk in time and space to improve surveillance of quarantine pests and to identify risk prevention priorities for government and fruit industry.


FAO. 1990. Glossary of phytosanitary terms, FAO Plant Protection Bulletin, 38(1) 1990: 5-23.

Fraimout A, Debat V, Fellous S, Hufbauer RA, Foucaud J, Pudlo P, Marin JM, Price DK, Cattel J, Chen X, Deprá M, François Duyck P, Guedot C, Kenis M, Kimura MT, Loeb G, Loiseau A, Martinez-Sañudo I, Pascual M, Polihronakis Richmond M, Shearer P, Singh N, Tamura K, Xuéreb A, Zhang J, Estoup A. 2017. Deciphering the Routes of invasion of Drosophila suzukii by Means of ABC Random Forest. Mol Biol Evol. 1;34(4):980-996. doi: 10.1093/molbev/msx050.

Holt J, Leach AW, Macleod A, Tomlinson D, Christodoulou M, Mumford JD. 2017. A quantitative model for trade pathway analysis of plant pest entry and transfer to a host in European Union territory. Bulletin OEPP/EPPO Bulletin 47(2) DOI10.1111/epp.12394

Please click on the page document to see John's presentation.